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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."