🔗 Share this article

Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or simply the biggest shock.

But the current competition is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners falling away and recent also-rans ascending in unison. During an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a wild and fun season, he's competing with five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a normal season!

The area where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still