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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.